The Vaccinia Dilemma
Smallpox shot poses modest danger, uncertain benefit
By Ben Harder
Consider two troubling scenarios. First, imagine that the government’s current smallpox vaccination campaign peters out before even a million people are vaccinated. Then, a month or perhaps a decade from now, terrorists cause simultaneous smallpox outbreaks in several cities. Within days, cases of the once-eradicated disease pop up across the country and around the world. The epidemic burns for months and leaves many thousands dead before it’s extinguished.
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Here’s a second possibility: Government workers vaccinate some 10 million healthcare workers, emergency responders, and citizens. A dozen of those vaccinated die of side effects, and hundreds more suffer serious life-threatening complications. Moreover, even without receiving the shot, scores of people at high risk for the vaccine’s side effects become fatally infected with its live virus accidentally imparted by vaccinated friends or family members. A decade later, no smallpox epidemic has appeared, but the country is peppered with memorials to these victims of a terrorism event that never occurred.