Brokeback Mountain or Good Night, and Good Luck? Felicity Huffman or Reese Witherspoon? Philip Seymour Hoffman or Joaquin Phoenix?
With great fanfare, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences recently announced the 2005 nominees for its prestigious film awards, commonly known as Oscars. The announcement set off the usual flurry of complaints about worthy candidates that were somehow overlooked and rampant speculation about who would win in each of the categories.
How easy is it to predict the winners? That’s the question that decision scientist Iain Pardoe of the Lundquist College of Business at the University of Oregon tackles in the current issue of Chance. He focuses on predicting the winners of the four major awards—picture, director, actor in a leading role, and actress in a leading role—from those nominated each year.